The Andy Lau signal: when an absence speaks louder than words
In theChinese cultural ecosystemconcept of a signal Andy Lau's aptly summarizes this mechanism: when a figure associated with the Hong Kong ideal of success, with banquets and the glamour of an era, ceases to be the implicit face of a social ritual, it's not simply a casting choice. It's a shift in references.
This weak, almost anecdotal signal helps to understand a larger phenomenon: the decline of cognac in China is not solely due to an economic cycle or price arbitrage, but to a shift in the codes that made this spirit socially obvious.
Cognac in China has long been a language of prestige : it signified success, relational power, access to fine dining and the right networks. However, this language is changing.
The ostentation inherited from Hong Kong influence, highly visual and demonstrative, is giving way to a more discreet, more continental, and also more domestic approach to success. Understanding this shift provides a useful framework for understanding not only cognac, but the luxury sector as a whole.
From Hong Kong to the mainland: two aesthetics of success
We need to distinguish between two imaginaries that have overlapped over the decades. The first, associated with Hong Kong and its media golden age, values a success that is displayed: large tables, gifts with strong symbolic value, immediately identifiable brands, outward signs of status.
In this world, cognac naturally stands out: recognizable bottle, spectacular serving rituals, association with heritage houses, and the possibility of displaying "level" without ambiguity.
The second, more continental, imaginary is constructed in an urban China that has changed scale. Success remains important, but it is presented differently. It becomes more controlled, sometimes more cautious, often more " internal ": quality rather than quantity, experience rather than demonstration, a select circle rather than a large audience. This aesthetic does not preclude luxury; it redefines its forms. It directly impacts categories historically linked to ostentation, including the Chinese cognac market.
Why has cognac been such a powerful status marker?
Cognac is a brandy made primarily fromUgni Blanc, distilled in a Charentais still, and then aged in oak barrels. This concise definition is important because it highlights what makes the product so appealing: the artisanal skill, the long aging process, theexpertise of the cellar master, the concept of blending, and the relative rarity of older vintages. In the world of luxury, time is a narrative element; cognac has always had this at its disposal.
In China, this cultural capital was amplified by social customs. The bottle, placed on a banquet table, served as a signature. It solidified a relationship, sealed a deal, and demonstrated generosity. The major houses, from Hennessy to Rémy Martin, from Martell to Courvoisier, built part of their desirability on this scene: the table setting, the gifting, the mental image of a ceremonial service.
But what makes a marker effective also makes it vulnerable: if the social occasion shifts, the symbol loses its power. The question, therefore, is not simply "are people drinking less?" but "where, when, and why are they drinking?" And above all: "what does that say about them?"
The decline in cognac sales in China: a cultural phenomenon before it is an accounting one
To interpret the decline in cognac sales in China solely as a temporary downturn is to miss the point entirely. Of course, purchasing power, household confidence, consumer spending patterns, and trade policies all play a role. But the most fundamental dynamic lies in the evolution of social norms: what was valued yesterday may become unfashionable tomorrow. Status-driven consumption, when too conspicuous, can be perceived as detached from reality, even risky.
The second driving force is the reconfiguration of opinion leaders. For a long time, legitimacy stemmed from networking: the business table, the influential host , the distributor capable of opening doors. Today, influence has fragmented: KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) and KOCs (Key Opinion Consumers) coexist, communities form and dissolve rapidly, and social proof is built in digital environments where ostentation no longer functions in the same way. Recommendations are shifting towards "good taste" rather than "big brand names."
The third driver is the shift in consumption occasions. Less status-oriented gifting, more private use, more experiences, more carefully chosen moments. This shift changes the value proposition: a bottle designed to impress at a banquet is not necessarily the most suitable for home use, a cocktail bar, or a tasting among connoisseurs.
From the banquet table to the living room: new moments, new expectations
When consumption becomes more private, the aesthetics of the product must be recalibrated. At home, precision is often sought: a clear story, an understandable taste, simple service. The ritual becomes more intimate. One might want a cognac to accompany a cigar, a dessert, or a late-night conversation, and not to "make a statement" in front of twenty guests. Formats, aromatic accessibility, and the clarity of the product range then take on greater importance.
This trip also fosters experiential learning. A masterclass with an ambassador, a comparative tasting, an introduction to blending, or the discovery of a terroir can create a more lasting connection than mere status. Contemporary luxury values demonstrations of expertise: knowing how to choose, knowing how to explain, knowing how to serve. For cognac in China, this opens up a new avenue: educating without being preachy, transmitting knowledge without giving the impression of correcting.
When influencers change: KOLs, KOCs and new artisans of taste
Luxury has long engaged with figures of authority: celebrities, CEOs, and prominent figures. Today's market values micro-communities and perceived authenticity more highly. Leaders (KOLs) remain powerful, but their effectiveness depends on the context: an overly promotional recommendation can backfire. Key Opinion Leaders (KOCs), on the other hand, bring credibility based on personal connection: they speak like discerning consumers, not like advertising posters.
In the spirits world, another influencer is rising: the mixologist. The bar is becoming a discreet status symbol. Ordering a well-made cocktail, understanding a menu, recognizing a spirit in a mix—these are less ostentatious displays of sophistication than simply lining up bottles on a table. This trend favors categories already compatible with mixology, such as whisky, gin, or certain premium local spirits, and compels cognac to demonstrate its modernity beyond traditional conventions.
Sommeliers, hotel bar managers, private club owners, and specialist retailers also play a role: they shape perception through selection, service, and storytelling. Cognac can gain depth in this way, provided it is willing to be tasted and compared, not just displayed.
New status markers: alternative categories and more “domestic” luxury
When a symbol loses its prominence, others take its place. In China, premium baijiu, embodied by brands like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, combines local heritage, national prestige, and the ability to represent a less "imported" kind of success. It also responds to a desire for cultural coherence: celebrating with a product that speaks the language of the country. In a context of deliberate restraint, it can be easier to justify a spirit whose prestige is institutionalized.
Whisky, particularly single malts and iconic brands like The Macallan and Johnnie Walker in the premium segment, captures another facet: the collector's culture, the taste for comparison, and the allure of limited editions. It fits perfectly into a private, connoisseur's consumption. Alongside this, mixology opens up space for lighter or more versatile products, while the low/no movement, with brands like Seedlip, reflects a desire for self-control and well-being, which has become a status symbol in itself.
These alternatives do not mean that cognac is doomed. They indicate that it must cease to be merely a "statement" and once again become a choice, justified by taste, history, and experience.
What cognac houses can change: from gifting to the meaning of the gesture
Gifting hasn't disappeared; it's evolving. Giving remains central to relationship culture, but conspicuous excess comes at a higher price. Brands must therefore cultivate the "meaning of the gesture." This involves editions that speak of craftsmanship rather than extravagance, packaging , intelligent personalization, and storytelling that values the relationship rather than ostentation.
Storytelling here isn't just a veneer. It must explain why this particular cognac, now, is right for this person. The houses have a structural advantage: their archives, their terroirs, their expertise, their cellars. Telling the story of the cellar master's role, the selection of eaux-de-vie, the influence of oak, the patience required for aging, can cultivate a discreet prestige. Continental luxury values demonstrable expertise: a story based on facts, not just symbols.
Communication also benefits from moving beyond solely focusing on major figures and investing in credible intermediaries: renowned bartenders, chefs, artistic directors, or content creators with a product-centric approach. In a world where trust is fragile, consistency is more valuable than raw visibility.
Product portfolio and pricing: readability, formats, and hierarchy reinvented
From a product perspective, the goal isn't simply to offer a more premium experience. It's about making the range more accessible for new uses. The VS, VSOP, and XO, sometimes abstract for some consumers, need to be explained simply, without being patronizing. This education can be achieved through experience: guided tastings, food and spirit pairings, signature cocktails, or comparisons between flavor profiles.
Format matters. In more private consumption settings, high-quality miniaturization can be a key advantage: discovery sets, bottles designed for sharing, and collectable offerings. This allows for maintaining pricing without forcing status-driven purchases. Perceived value shifts from volume to the quality of the selection.
Pricing, for its part, must align with the new psychology of prestige. A high price can remain desirable if justified by rarity, precision, traceability, aesthetics, and the associated experience. Conversely, a high price based solely on the image of a banquet can seem outdated. Contemporary luxury penalizes not so much the cost itself as the lack of justification.
Distribution and experience: from duty-free to private lounges, a presence to be reconfigured
The distribution of premium spirits in China has become increasingly sophisticated: e-commerce, online platforms, social commerce, specialty retail, and luxury hotels. Within this ecosystem, price consistency and execution quality are crucial. A brand can lose its prestige if the purchasing experience contradicts its messaging, or if visibility comes at the expense of desirability.
Presence in hotels, upscale bars, and private clubs remains strategic, not as an ostentatious showcase, but as a stage for understated luxury. Impeccable service, a suitable glass, a sound recommendation, and a concise wine list create a connection that mere display can no longer produce. For cognac in China, these venues can once again become schools of taste, provided that investment is made in training, staff support, and the quality of the rituals.
Finally, digital platforms should be viewed as spaces for providing evidence: explanations, behind-the-scenes glimpses, encounters, concise educational content, and tasting notes. The goal isn't to be everywhere, but to be credible where you express yourself. In a market where recommendations often hinge on trust, editorial precision becomes a competitive advantage.
Potential winners and scenarios: cognac is not finished, it must change its role
In the current recomposition, some winners seem well positioned: premium baijiu, because it embodies a national prestige compatible with sobriety; whisky, because it fits into a culture of connoisseurs and collectors; mixology, because it transforms status into experience; and low/no, because it responds to an aspiration for control, health and balance.
Cognac, however, can regain ground if it agrees to shift from a symbol of display to a symbol of discernment. This implies recognizing that the decline of cognac in China is also a decline in a certain social order.
The houses that will succeed will be those that can translate their heritage into contemporary codes: less decibels, more depth; less status, more intimacy; less uniformity, more precision.
Ultimately, cognac retains a rare strength: it speaks of time.
