Swiss watch exports to the United States are declining
Swiss watch export sector is experiencing turbulence in the American market . In September 2025, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) noted a 3.1% decline in total exports to 2.0 billion francs, with a "significant correction" to the United States .
Specifically, Swiss watch exports to the US fell by 55.6% over the month, to approximately 157.7 million francs, causing America to drop from its first to third place as the country's export market. This exceptional contraction is weighing on the confidence of an iconic sector that had just emerged from a slight decline of 2.8% in 2024.
Where did the fall towards the United States come from?
The main shock stems from the tariffs in the summer of 2025, reaching up to 39% for several categories of Swiss products, including watches . This increase has led to delivery disruptions, temporary overstocking upstream, and a significant slowdown in late-summer orders.
Statistical series also show a surge in anticipation in July, followed by a break in August and then a marked fall in September, which confirms the price and calendar effect.
Beyond tariffs, three factors amplify this trend. First, American consumers have become more selective and sensitive to price increases passed on to retailers. Second, the relative strength of the Swiss franc undermines the price competitiveness of Swiss watches when catalogs are adjusted.
Finally, there is more intense competition in the entry-level and mid-range segment, where choices between mechanical watches and connected watches remain frequent.
The consequences for the Swiss watchmaking ecosystem
In the short term, manufacturers are adjusting production volumes to meet US demand and reallocating resources to Europe and Asia to mitigate risk. Subcontractors, highly exposed to new product cycles, are experiencing more abrupt fluctuations in workload.
The FH had already noted in mid-2025 a deceptive stability, hiding strong disparities between markets and price segments, confirmed since then by the American weakness.
In the medium term, the product mix is key. Steel products led the decline this summer, while entry-level products held up better in some months. Volume compression in the US is impacting the product mix and could erode operating margins, especially if price increases are not fully implemented.
Diversified groups then rely on the rotation of new products, organized scarcity and after-sales service to support perceived value.
Prices, currencies and demand elasticity
Faced with tariffs , two strategies coexist. Some retailers partially absorb the increase to maintain sales. Others incorporate it into the prices by adjusting the allowances.
In all cases, price elasticity becomes critical in the United States, where the competing premium non-Swiss offering and the second-hand market further structure arbitrage.
High-end segments suffer from a psychological effect when the symbolic threshold is crossed, but the collector clientele remains committed to iconic pieces and limited editions .
How are brands reacting?
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A tighter innovation calendar:
New products with shorter cycles and limited collections maintain desirability without inflating inventories. Launches rely on proprietary movements, distinctive alloys, and a strong brand identity. -
Distribution and e-commerce:
Accelerating e-commerce in the United States and streamlining the wholesale network to maintain prices. The goal is to retain control of customer messaging and data. -
Perceived value and storytelling:
Strengthening know-how , component traceability and parts durability (repairability, spare parts) support the brand premium in the face of price pressure. -
Risk coverage and pricing:
pricing adjustments by reference, tighter foreign exchange hedges and modulated logistics to avoid customs duty shocks.
The role of trade fairs and international visibility
Industry-specific events remain essential for reigniting the passion for the market. SIHH is now called Watches and Wonders Geneva , with a more open format that amplifies media coverage and strengthens relationships with international retailers, including those in the US. In the context of a US market , these platforms boost orders outside the US and reinforce brand visibility, while awaiting a return to normalcy.
Scenarios for 2026
Several scenarios are on the table. A soft landing if tariffs normalize and retail price inflation slows. A middle-ground scenario where America remains the weak link but Europe and certain Asian markets compensate. And a cautious scenario with lasting tariffs, forcing companies to redesign their product mix to maintain margins, while capitalizing on innovation and scarcity .
The FH notes that, apart from the American impact, the underlying dynamic remains less unfavorable than it appears, a sign that the core desirability of " made in Switzerland" remains intact.
Key points to remember
The marked decline in Swiss watch exports to the United States is primarily due to the tariffs and their collateral effects on prices and delivery schedules.
The consequences can be seen in the mix, distribution and stock management, but the watch industry retains powerful levers to cushion the shock: product innovation, controlled scarcity, better integrated sales channels and influence platforms like Watches and Wonders Geneva .
In the short term, caution is necessary; in the medium term, the heritage value of the Swiss watch remains a credible shield.
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