Growth is expected, but there is a change in nature
The global luxury market is expected to grow by 2% to 4% by 2028, according to a recent Kearney published in early April 2026.This figure seems conservative, almost reassuring, after the years of post-pandemic euphoria followed by normalization. However, in the luxury sector, moderate growth is far from insignificant: it acts as a revealer. When expansion is no longer driven automatically by the recovery in travel or by price increases, each brand must regain desirability, preference, and purchase frequency—in other words, the quality of demand.
Discussing the new dynamics of luxuryis therefore less about commenting on a macroeconomic trajectory than about understanding a structural transformation. Things are shifting simultaneously on several fronts: geopolitics, regulations, consumption patterns, sales technologies, traceability expectations, and even the very definition of what constitutes the "experience" of a brand. In this environment, groups like LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Hermès, Chanel and Prada are no longer simply playing a game of scale, but a game of architecture: how to organize the brand, distribution, and customer relationship in a world that has become more fragmented.
Territorial fragmentation: the return of borders in a global world
refers Territorial fragmentation to a simple phenomenon: the market no longer evolves as a homogeneous bloc. Purchasing dynamics are becoming increasingly differentiated between regions, and sometimes even between cities. Differences in growth, price sensitivity, cultural norms, and regulatory constraints are forcing brands to think locally without losing their overall coherence. Globalization had standardized some luxury practices; the current period is reintroducing variations, disruptions, and trade-offs.
Several forces are converging. Geopolitics and trade tensionsare making some supply chains more complex and some expansions more cautious. Regulations on data, advertising, taxation, and sustainability are proliferating, with requirements varying from country to country. Finally, customer profiles are changing: tourists don't always shop in the same places, local consumers are gaining more influence, and digital platforms are not expanding uniformly. As a result, the "one size fits all" strategy is losing its effectiveness.
Price is once again becoming a variable in geographic strategy
In the luxury sector, price is never just a number: it's a value signal, a symbolic barrier, and a management tool. But when markets fragment, the question of price also becomes territorial. Taxes, customs duties, currency fluctuations, tax-free policies, logistics costs, and commercial rents create noticeable disparities. These disparities fuel arbitrage behavior: purchases while traveling, online comparisons, requests for availability in other markets, and sometimes recourse to the gray market.
The companies are therefore seeking a delicate balance. Harmonizing prices too much can reduce local competitiveness; allowing too much variation can erode trust and encourage undesirable distribution channels. The most advanced players are developing a more dynamic “pricing architecture” that takes into account the context, stock quotas, marketing calendar, and competitive pressure. This trend affects fashion and leather goods as much as Swiss watchmaking, where availability and scarcity, at brands like Rolex or Patek Philippe, for example, are becoming variables of reputation as much as sales.
When experiential learning becomes the new common language
If we had to isolate a keyword that cuts across the sector's transformation, it would be "experiential." The concept is often misused; it deserves a quick definition: in luxury, experiential is not about one-off events, but about the ability to bring the brand to life through moments, places, and thoughtful touches that give meaning to the product. It's about crafting a relationship, making a heritage tangible, and demonstrating excellence through detail, seamlessness, and personalization.
In practical terms, the store becomes a stage, and sometimes a destination. Flagship incorporate hospitality, culture, demonstrations of craftsmanship, private lounges, and repair or customization services. The experience is extended through appointments, trunk shows, workshops on materials from cashmere to leather, and omnichannel journeys where a discovery begins on mobile and is completed with an in-store advisor. In a market that is growing more slowly, the experience is no longer a "plus": it becomes a driver of conversion and loyalty.
Jewelry: Between Safe Haven and Contemporary Desire
Jewelry occupies a unique place in these new dynamics of luxury. It combines a heritage dimension, almost a financial one, with a strong emotional charge. Gold, platinum, diamonds, sapphires, emeralds : precious materials speak of rarity in the truest sense. In a context where some consumers favor fewer but more significant purchases, fine jewelry and designer jewelry find fertile ground, provided they skillfully blend heritage and modernity.
Major jewelry houses like Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Bulgari , and Tiffany & Co.don't just sell a piece of jewelry; they sell a narrative of style, a signature, and expertise. The craftspeople involved are crucial: the gemologist ensures the quality of the stones, the jeweler constructs the form, the setter brings out the brilliance, and the polisher finalizes the feel when worn. This emphasis on craftsmanship responds to a contemporary expectation: to understand what one is buying and why it is worth the price.
Added to this is a now central imperative: traceability. Clients, especially for high-value pieces, want to know the origin of the gemstones, how the gold is sourced, and what ethical guarantees accompany its creation. Jewelry houses are therefore investing in traceability chains, certifications, and more precise communication. Here again, fragmentation plays a role: requirements vary from country to country, but the demand for trust is becoming universal.
Agentic commerce: when the assistant buys, filters and recommends
refers Agentic commerce to the emergence of digital agents capable of acting on behalf of a customer: searching for a product, comparing options, booking an appointment, negotiating delivery constraints, or even initiating an order based on preferences. It's not simply " e-commerce with AI": it's a shift in the interface. Instead of the customer navigating a website, they delegate an intention to an agent, which becomes a new intermediary between desire and purchase.
For the luxury sector, the challenge is twofold. On the one hand, these agents can streamline processes that are notoriously cumbersome, particularly for international clientele accustomed to a high level of service. On the other hand, they risk standardizing the discovery process by favoring what is easily indexed, comparable, and readily available. Yet luxury thrives on distinction, rarity, emotion, and surprise. Luxury brands must therefore design a presence that is "accessible" to agents without reducing their universe to a product description.
A new grammar is emerging: structured content, real-time availability, assisted appointment booking, connected clienteling, and orchestrated after-sales service. Brands that can combine technical precision with human warmth will stand out. Because while an agent can prepare, filter, and facilitate, they cannot replace the moment when an advisor adjusts a bracelet, helps a customer try on a piece, or tells the story behind an iconic design.
Data, confidentiality, and clienteling: the relationship under high demands
are Customer relations at the heart of luxury, but they are changing in terms of tools and constraints. Luxury brands have long relied on the boutique as their center of gravity. Now, data flows between touchpoints: website, app, customer service, social media, events, partner hotels, and the boutique itself. This flow fuels clienteling, the art of recognizing a customer, understanding their tastes, and making the right offer at the right time, with an accuracy bordering on intuition.
The paradox is that as personalization increases, tolerance for intrusion decreases. Regulations and expectations of confidentiality impose a discipline: consent, transparency, security, and restraint. Luxury must prove that it knows how to protect as well as it knows how to seduce. The most established brands don't seek to know everything, but rather to know better: material preferences, sizes, appointment habits, repair history, and relevant life moments, without veering into over-intrusiveness.
In a fragmented world, data governance is also becoming an organizational issue. A customer might buy a part in Paris, have it repaired in Milan, and request service in Dubai. The brand promise implies continuity, but systems, local rules, and retail cultures diverge. Yet continuity is precisely what transforms a buyer into a loyal customer.
Supply chains, materials and sustainability: excellence under pressure
Sustainability is no longer a separate issue; it has become integral to the very definition of excellence. This encompasses the selection of materials, the environmental impact of workshops, the longevity of products, and also the ability to repair, maintain, and pass them on. In leather goods, leather raises questions of traceability and processes. In fashion, fibers, from cotton to cashmere, demand more rigorous practices. In jewelry, recycled gold, the origin of gemstones, and certification standards are becoming criteria for building trust.
This transformation faces real constraints. Supply chains are more exposed to risks: energy, transport, availability of certain leather qualities, lead times for cutting stones, and strains on certain skills. Luxury, which was built on mastering long-term processes, must secure capacity without trivializing scarcity. Some houses are investing in vertical integration, others in exceptional partnerships, and still others in repair and supervised second-life programs, when this serves the brand's value.
In a market that is no longer overheating, the demand for sustainability is combined with a demand for proof. Generic statements are less convincing; concrete, educational approaches are more so. Explaining a workshop, documenting a supply chain, providing a quantified outlook, training in-store teams to respond accurately: all these elements reinforce the perception of seriousness, and therefore of luxury.
Jobs, training and internal desirability: the other battle
We talk a lot about customers, but less about those who make luxury possible. Yet, the arts and crafts, artisanal skills, and retail excellence are rare resources. Leatherworker, cutter, stitcher, embroiderer, watchmaker, gem setter, polisher, but also sales advisor capable of combining product knowledge with a strong sense of service: these profiles determine the perceived quality. When industry transforms, it needs talent capable of blending tradition and modernity, skill and tool, patience and responsiveness.
The companies are investing in in-house schools, academies, apprenticeship programs, and in making their workshops more attractive. It's not just about recruitment, but about retention: providing meaning, offering career paths, and protecting the time needed for "quality work." This issue is becoming strategic, because the scarcity of certain skills can limit production capacity, and therefore growth, but also the ability to deliver on a promise of excellence at a time when customers are increasingly comparing products and services.
In this context, experiential marketing has an internal dimension: bringing the brand culture to life within the teams so they can accurately reflect it. Consistent luxury is recognized by this invisible continuity, from the design studio to the workshop, from logistics to the fitting room.
Looking ahead to 2028: towards a more segmented, more relational luxury
What can we expect by 2028, assuming growth remains moderate but transformation accelerates? First, more refined segmentation. Brands will more clearly distinguish their clientele, uses, and territories, without abandoning a global brand identity. The same brand name will need to speak several languages: that of the traveler, the local customer, the fine jewelry collector, the younger generation discovering through digital channels, and the customer who entrusts the longevity of a piece to after-sales service.
Next, a more relational luxury. The product will remain central, but the relationship will become the primary driver of value: quality of advice, relevance of invitations, continuity of service, and the ability to create memorable moments. In a world of agents and algorithms, luxury can paradoxically become a haven of conversation, attention, and time invested. This is also what justifies the difference between a purchase and an acquisition.
Finally, there is increased competition based on credibility: credibility of prices, credibility of commitments, credibility of traceability, credibility of expertise. The new dynamics of luxury do not only favor the largest players; they favor those who know how to orchestrate complexity without displaying it, and how to transform constraints into proof of excellence. The profound transformation evoked by Kearney is not simply a slowdown.
