The luxury market in China is no longer progressing smoothly. After years of spectacular growth, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of decline, according to a recent report by Bain & Company. However, this doesn't signal a lasting loss of interest: the same analysis outlines a moderate recovery for 2026 , driven by demand that isn't disappearing but is being reshaped. The key point lies in a phrase that has become central to executive committees: the "more selective" consumer.
This selectivity is changing the way we see everything: the hierarchy of categories, tolerance for price increases, the way we buy (less impulsive, more informed), and even the channels that gain or lose relevance. In this landscape, two sectors are holding up better than others and are driving the prospect of a luxury market recovery in China by 2026 : beauty, because it meets a need for renewal and self-expression at a relatively low price point, and jewelry, because it embodies symbolism, status, and heritage value.
2025: a retreat that reshuffles the cards, without erasing desirability
Talking about a decline in Chinese luxury by 2025 doesn't mean that China is ceasing to be a structuring force for the industry. Rather, it means that the market is entering a phase of normalization: volumes are readjusting, buyers are making more strategic choices, and the post-reopening euphoria is fading. In this context, growth is no longer achieved "mechanically" through network expansion alone or continuous price increases. It is achieved through precision.
The Bain & Company report highlights a moderate recovery in 2026, suggesting a gradual return of confidence and an improvement in certain fundamentals, without a spectacular rebound. For brands, the challenge is twofold: preserving brand equity, meaning desirability, while adapting to a more frictional reality where consumers compare, hesitate, and expect proof of value.
This shift explains why different categories are not reacting in the same way. Products with a clear, immediate, or culturally ingrained justification continue to perform well. Conversely, purchases highly exposed to fads, the frenzy of new launches, or price increases that are difficult to justify become more vulnerable to a wait-and-see attitude.
The "more selective" consumer: what that means in concrete terms
Selectivity is not austerity. It refers to a new approach to buying: fewer items "to try on," more items "to keep." In the luxury sector, this translates into increased attention to materials, finishes, craftsmanship, and the alignment of price with perceived value. Customers are more sensitive to demonstrable quality, service, warranties, repairability, and the object's history.
This rationalization is also evident in the pace of purchasing. Cycles are lengthening, decision-making time is increasing, and information gathering is becoming central. On Chinese platforms and social ecosystems, recommendations and educational content carry more weight. Consumers are not abandoning desire, but they want to justify it: through use, status, heritage, or the emotional significance of a gift.
Finally, this selectivity accentuates the polarization. The wealthiest customers, often referred to as VICs (Very Important Clients), remain active but expect even more personalized attention. Aspiring buyers, on the other hand, seek more accessible and better-calibrated "entry points," without accepting a degradation of the brand experience. This creates space for premium beauty and for certain expressions of jewelry, from iconic pieces to everyday gold jewelry.
Why does beauty endure: accessibility, renewal, precision of gesture?
Luxury beauty benefits from a structural advantage : it renews itself naturally. A lipstick, a perfume, a skincare product become part of a routine, are easily given as a gift, and are replaced. In a time when consumers are becoming more cautious, this frequency acts as a buffer. The entry-level price also allows one to remain within the world of a brand without ever having to buy a bag or a coat.
But the resilience of beauty isn't limited to accessibility. It relies on the ability to quickly demonstrate value. Consumers expect textures, results, sensory experiences, and expertise. The most successful brands are those that combine a narrative—the elegance of Dior ,the aura of Chanel, the precision of Hermès in its craftsmanship—with scientific credibility and a nuanced understanding of local needs, from climate to skin sensitivity.
The risk, however, lies in the temptation of promotional overuse. When demand surges, some brands may be drawn to discounting strategies that erode prestige. In the Chinese ecosystem, where e-commerce is powerful, the balance between visibility, sales activation, and price maintenance becomes delicate. A beauty brand that overuses promotions may gain volume in the short term but lose brand equity in the long term.
Jewelry: symbolism, heritage, and the desire for objects that last
While beauty may be a cushion, jewelry is a magnet. In a luxury market revival in China that is expected to be selective, jewelry ticks several boxes: it is seen, it is passed down, it embodies a moment. It speaks to gifting, commitment, and success. And above all, it relies on a notion of value that is more tangible than other categories: gold, platinum, diamonds, pearls, and even certain stones associated with local imagery, such as jade.
The major jewelry houses— Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Tiffany & Co., Bulgari —possess a narrative advantage: they can connect each piece to a vocabulary of motifs, a history of craftsmanship, and identifiable professions, from the gemologist to the setter. At a time when buyers want to understand "why it's expensive," the ability to explain the manufacturing process, the selection of gems, the precision of the setting, or the complexity of a pavé setting becomes a key factor in conversion.
The jewelry industry also benefits from the search for more durable objects. When consumers rationalize their spending, they can reduce the number of purchases but increase the ambition of each acquisition. An iconic ring, a signature bracelet, or a piece of fine jewelry fits this logic. The danger, here again, is saturation: too many collections, too many variations, too much noise. Rarity must remain credible, otherwise the buyer will either distance themselves or make too direct a comparison.
Price, "pricing power" and perceived value: the new truth test
Pricing is one of the most closely watched indicators in this phase. The past decade has shown that a brand can raise its prices and see demand follow, as long as the aspirational element remains intact. Current selectivity changes the game: the question is no longer simply "can we raise prices?" but "can we explain?" Perceived value becomes the central argument, and it is built through the product, quality, distribution, and service.
In practical terms, automatic price increases, without a corresponding increase in the overall offering, risk accelerating price shifts. Conversely, a pricing strategy that protects iconic brands, clarifies product ranges, and avoids inconsistencies between channels can strengthen customer confidence. In the beauty sector, this translates into consistent formats, application techniques, and limited editions. In the jewelry sector, it involves transparency regarding materials, controlled volumes, and consistency between entry-level and exceptional pieces.
The regional comparison effect must also be considered. Chinese consumers know the cost of a product in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul , or Europe. The slightest discrepancy, amplified by social media, fuels a sense of injustice. In 2026, the recovery will depend not only on demand, but also on the ability of companies to maintain a clear and defensible pricing structure.
Retail, e-commerce, social commerce: distribution is once again becoming strategic
Luxury in China is a laboratory of channels. The boutique remains an essential stage, especially for jewelry and VIP clients, because it allows for ritual, trying on, personalization, and after-sales service. But e-commerce, long considered incompatible with the very high end, has established itself as a tool for discovery, reassurance, and sometimes purchase, particularly for beauty products and certain more accessible jewelry lines.
In a selective market, the role of each channel becomes clearer. Platforms like Tmall Luxury Pavilion or JD can support visibility and accessibility, provided they protect the customer experience and avoid creating the impression of a "discount fair." Social ecosystems, with WeChat leading the way, are becoming spaces for building relationships: clienteling, invitations, pre-orders, educational content, appointment booking, and repair tracking. It's not just another channel; it's a layer that connects all the stages.
Physical retail, however, must evolve: less "decorative" space, more service. Houses that invest in training their advisors, in product knowledge, and in the ability to discuss gemstones, carats, settings, or care protocols are turning selectivity into an advantage. In a period of moderate recovery, winning isn't just about attracting customers, but about converting and retaining them.
Gifting in China: an engine that is transforming, but not disappearing
Giving remains a central gesture in China's luxury consumption culture, but its codes are shifting. Gifting is becoming more intimate, more meaningful, and sometimes less ostentatious. Beauty lends itself to this through ritual and attention to presentation. Jewelry lends itself through symbolism: celebrating a milestone, marking a commitment, affirming a family bond. In both cases, success hinges on the brand's ability to offer a narrative that can be "gifted" along with the object.
This evolution favors meaningful pieces: iconic motifs, engraving, personalization, and care services. It also encourages a more nuanced understanding of gift-giving moments, beyond the obvious dates. Brands capable of crafting relevant campaigns, rooted in culture without resorting to mere folklore, gain in authenticity. They speak more about relationships, care, and continuity, rather than simple displays of affection.
The risk, however, is homogenization. By trying to seize every opportunity, some brands create interchangeable narratives. But selectivity requires that consumers recognize authenticity. By 2026, stories will need to be more specific, more "real," and more closely linked to identifiable expertise.
Tourism and travel retail: the confidence barometer
Tourism is as much a psychological indicator as an economic one. When travel flows pick up again, it's often a sign that confidence is returning and the desire to plan is back. For Chinese luxury brands, travel retail and overseas shopping have historically played a significant role because they combine prices perceived as fairer with the experience and pleasure of travel. The developments of 2026 will therefore also be reflected in airports, major Asian markets, and European destinations.
Hainan, with its status as a domestic duty-free zone, remains a testing ground. It forces brands to design a premium experience in an ultra-high-traffic environment, where the line between luxury and intensive retail can become blurred. Hong Kong retains its hub function, both for shopping and for cultural influence. Brands will need to adjust their allocations, exclusives, and service strategies to capture these flows without cannibalizing their mainland stores.
In this anticipated moderate recovery, tourism alone will not be enough, but it will either confirm or refute a return of uninhibited desire. A rebound in travel retail spending, without a decline in the perceived price, would be a strong signal. Conversely, a recovery based solely on price-cutting would indicate a still fragile market.
Adapting the offer: icons, new features and portfolio consistency
Selectivity favors iconic products because they are easily recognizable and reassuring. A signature bag, a recognizable watch, an emblematic bracelet, a cult fragrance : these products act as anchors. But a brand cannot rely solely on its icons. It must also offer new products, provided they have a purpose and are not simply a result of meeting a deadline.
For the beauty industry, this means prioritizinguseful innovation overcosmetic innovation : truly distinctive formulas, tailored routines, and a consistent move upmarket. For jewelry, it means controlling the pace of collections and avoiding an overabundance of new pieces. A piece of jewelry also sells over time: the customer returns, observes, and compares. Too many new releases muddy desire instead of amplifying it.
Fashion houses , from Louis Vuitton to Hermès , will also have to contend with current sensitivities: Chinese consumers still crave creativity, but they are quicker to reject anything that appears opportunistic. A clear proposition, impeccable quality, and a top-notch in-store experience remain the three pillars that transform an intention into a purchase.
Storytelling and localization: speaking to China without caricaturing yourself
Localizing does not mean sticking a symbol on a product. Relevant localization consists of understanding contemporary aspirations : the balance between tradition and modernity, the quest for well-being, theaffirmation of a personal aesthetic, the respect for know-how.
In the beauty industry, this can involve routines and textures that cater to local uses, but also a precise discourse that avoids vague promises.
In jewelry, this can translate into subtle work on stones, colors, and symbols, without overemphasizing.
